The attack in Russia is barbaric. Cowards kill children and women in this manner. With ISIS “claiming” the attack, global actors must know that they have a common enemy. I wrote this last year:

“What could the “coronation” of a new ISIS leader mean for Africa?

1. When news emerged days ago that, yet another ISIS global leader had died and a new one had been installed, it had become clear that that position has a high “turnover”—lethally.

2. After al-Baghdadi (the group’s first leader) was killed in Syria in 2019, the new leader has been the fourth at the helm of one of the most violent groups in the world.

3. He is going to oversee an ever-expanding global “death machine” that is becoming an aversion even for terror groups like al-Qaeda and other militant entities like the Taliban.

4. What has this got to do with Africa?

5. Before 2014, the only global terror organization with reach in Africa was al-Qaeda. Al-Shabaab had pledged allegiance back in 2012. Even in the 1990s when bin Laden was not known globally, he had used attacks against US interests in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam to establish himself as a potent jihadist.

6. Almost a decade after ISIS launched itself in Syria and Iraq, Africa has become its most priced turf. It has become more lethal and occupied more territories in the continent. The many franchises of the group scattered across Africa are also exploiting resources.

7. And so what?

8. Like all other groups, succession in terror organizations is not without contestation. Even though operatives seem to have the same goals, there are always variations in the approaches to reaching these goals, and this creates competition.

9. Consequently, new leaders of terror organizations assert their authority often with ferocity and deadly attacks. They achieve this by issuing orders to their global adherents. Already ISIS franchises are notorious for their audacious attacks. A new leader trying to send a message to his internal rivals could aggravate this.

10. In the Sahel, a federation of al-Qaeda affiliates (JNIM) has in recent times called on moderate Islamists to help fight ISIS franchises. Al-Shabaab is also facing fierce competition in the Horn of Africa from ISIS affiliates. IS Central Africa Province has become deadly in Eastern DRC and Western Uganda. Mozambique is battling an insurgency in the Cabo Delgado region that has pledged allegiance to ISIS.

11. North Sinai, Libya and other parts of North Africa have their challenge with ISIS affiliates.

12. State and non-state actors operating in areas where these franchises are found should put in place precautionary measures against possible increases in attacks. This could help avoid or reduce casualties. Also, places of convergence should have better security surveillance.

13. Yes, ISIS leaders at the top are not surviving for long periods; however, the group’s strength in the continent through its franchises could be useful to leaders who want to stamp their authority.”